Hi Mike,
I’m happy to write back, especially on important topics like this one.
I too share your enthusiasm about T CrB. Ever since Brad, Elizabeth, and I announced the pre-eruption dip in September 2023, I’ve had MyNewsFlash running and have been following the star just as closely as everyone else. In that time, we’ve chased down no fewer than 20 false alarms. Some of these were so convincing that it required a great deal of skepticism on our behalf to justify running our verification process, yet we did.
To quote Leslie Peltier, “Novae are utterly unpredictable.” T CrB is no different. The reality is that there are significant uncertainties in the physical state of the system, and we can’t predict with a high degree of confidence when the eruption will occur. It could be tonight, next week, next month, or years into the future. For those who’d like to dig deeper into the current understanding of the system, see the recent paper by Munari et al..
Despite our modern desire to stay constantly connected and be instantly notified, I don’t think you’re at any risk of missing the eruption due to a few hours’ delay. Here’s a closer look at the 1946 event:
The first observation at V = 10 was on 1946-02-02, followed by V = 5.1 on 1946-02-04 and a peak at V = 3 on 1946-02-09. The brightening phase, therefore, took a few days—not hours. After the peak, V = 6 was recorded a week later on 1946-02-16, and the system didn’t return to V ≈ 9.6 until a month later on 1946-03-09. While the event was relatively fast by nova standards, a few hours’ delay won’t ruin the show in my opinion. I’ll still be happy just knowing I saw it happen with my own eyes. In case you’d like to explore this event, here is a direct link to the light curve generator
That said, you’re absolutely right; there’s a recurring daily gap in the AAVSO data. Despite being an international organization, our network is naturally thinner across the vast stretch of the globe between roughly 37° E (Poland, Greece, Libya) and 126° W (the U.S. West Coast) — about 54% of the planet. I’d love to see more observers from the Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific contributing their data to help close that gap.
If you know anyone in those regions who enjoys observing, please encourage them to submit their data to the AAVSO. Even with these challenges, our typical gap is only about 10 - 12 hours, which is a remarkable achievement for a volunteer network that truly spans the globe.
Kind regards,
Brian