Professor Schneider’s prediction of November 10th is just days away. Maybe it’s building up for the big one. Which makes sense. It’s about to go behind the sun.
1 Like
Hi All,
Is anyone actively monitoring T CRB? And would anyone be willing (pretty please) to add me to your notification software for Johnson V below 8.5? I would be eternally grateful. lilmcharris@gmail.com
Thank you so much,
Mike
Hi Enrique,
How are you? Looks like you are capturing a lot of data on T CRB, its eruption is something that I’ve been awaiting eagerly for four years, would you be willing to send me an email alert if you see if in its pre-eruption phase? Like a Johnson V of below 8.5? I would be so so grateful if you were willing to do this? My email is lilmcharris@gmail.com
Thank you Enrique,
Mike
1 Like
Hi Brian,
It sounds like you have your finger on the pulse regarding T CRB. You mention announcing the early stages of the eruption, which I personally feel would be two independent and reputable readings of Johnson V under 8.5 (or there abouts). I am DESPERATE to be on the list of people to be notified in those first few hours. How would one get their name on a list to receive such notifications?
My email is [REDACTED] and I would LOVE to be put on any list that you might have.
Thank you in advance, or if I need to do something then please let me know, as the AAVSO database currently has inadequate data feeds to capture this event in the early stages, and I fear that I and others might miss it if we are simply signed up for notifications there.
Thanks Brian,
Mike
Hi Mike,
Thank you for your message and for your enthusiasm about the upcoming T CrB event.
At this time, the list of individuals who will receive early notifications has been established and is sufficient for our needs. Our observers typically submit one new data point about every six minutes under normal conditions, though this slows to roughly one every fifteen minutes during solar conjunction, which provides ample coverage for detecting changes in brightness. Should this change in the future, we’ll certainly consider expanding the list.
If you’d like to stay as current as possible, you may wish to subscribe to the MyNewsFlash service, which distributes alerts as frequently as every ten minutes. However, as someone who has received these notifications for the past two years, I recommend instead waiting for official press releases or monitoring our Twitter account, Facebook feed, and other AAVSO channels for verified updates. The MyNewsFlash alerts are unfiltered and have included numerous false positives, so they should be interpreted with caution.
Best regards,
Brian Kloppenborg
Executive Director, AAVSO
2 Likes
Hi Brian,
Such a novelty to have someone as senior as yourself taking the time to respond to us little guys.
Thank you for this advice, and perhaps I’m pulling from the wrong AAVSO data then (AAVSO photometry database is what I’m currently using). But I checked the Johnson V data for T CRB yesterday and its latest input was Friday, and it is often updated for 6 hours per day, leaving the other 18 without data? But you are saying that you have an up to date data set that is updated every few minutes - how does one access this?
Regarding the NEWSFLASH feature, I excitedly set this up yesterday and I was awoken multiple times from notifications throughout the night with scores of less than 8.5 (Johnson V target) for Band I, Band C etc. so, given that it doesn’t isolate certain bands, I don’t think I can cope doing this for too long.
It’s hard to emphasise how desperate that I (and others) are to be notified early. In fact, I’ve spent hours/days trying to set up notification system in various ways, including hiring a python programmer to pull from various APIs, but if the data of those APIs has gaps or lags of 12-72 hours, then we won’t be notified in time.
Thank you so much Brian and any advice would be super helpful.
Regards,
Mike
Hello Mike,
I would definitely do so, but there’s an issue. For me T CrB is too low now, and it is impossible for me to take reliable photometry to be honest. TBH, I wish this goes off when it’s visible again, in just a few months.
Thanks for reaching out.
Cheers!
Enrique
(BETB)
Hi Mike,
I’m happy to write back, especially on important topics like this one.
I too share your enthusiasm about T CrB. Ever since Brad, Elizabeth, and I announced the pre-eruption dip in September 2023, I’ve had MyNewsFlash running and have been following the star just as closely as everyone else. In that time, we’ve chased down no fewer than 20 false alarms. Some of these were so convincing that it required a great deal of skepticism on our behalf to justify running our verification process, yet we did.
To quote Leslie Peltier, “Novae are utterly unpredictable.” T CrB is no different. The reality is that there are significant uncertainties in the physical state of the system, and we can’t predict with a high degree of confidence when the eruption will occur. It could be tonight, next week, next month, or years into the future. For those who’d like to dig deeper into the current understanding of the system, see the recent paper by Munari et al..
Despite our modern desire to stay constantly connected and be instantly notified, I don’t think you’re at any risk of missing the eruption due to a few hours’ delay. Here’s a closer look at the 1946 event:
The first observation at V = 10 was on 1946-02-02, followed by V = 5.1 on 1946-02-04 and a peak at V = 3 on 1946-02-09. The brightening phase, therefore, took a few days—not hours. After the peak, V = 6 was recorded a week later on 1946-02-16, and the system didn’t return to V ≈ 9.6 until a month later on 1946-03-09. While the event was relatively fast by nova standards, a few hours’ delay won’t ruin the show in my opinion. I’ll still be happy just knowing I saw it happen with my own eyes. In case you’d like to explore this event, here is a direct link to the light curve generator
That said, you’re absolutely right; there’s a recurring daily gap in the AAVSO data. Despite being an international organization, our network is naturally thinner across the vast stretch of the globe between roughly 37° E (Poland, Greece, Libya) and 126° W (the U.S. West Coast) — about 54% of the planet. I’d love to see more observers from the Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific contributing their data to help close that gap.
If you know anyone in those regions who enjoys observing, please encourage them to submit their data to the AAVSO. Even with these challenges, our typical gap is only about 10 - 12 hours, which is a remarkable achievement for a volunteer network that truly spans the globe.
Kind regards,
Brian
1 Like
This is awesome. Thank you Brian
Mike,
Another way to tackle this problem: why not dedicate a small optical system, maybe with a DSLR, or any other cheap astronomical camera to observing this star?
That way, whenever the sky is clear, you’d be sure not to miss the nova’s ignition. And when the sky is overcast, even if you don’t receive an early warning, it doesn’t matter, since there’s nothing to observe from your backyard!
Christophe
Dr. Kloppenborg,
Thank you for replying to the unaccredited outsiders, as per your reply to my recent email inre: New Mexico, Texas and Utah.
to the AAVSO community:
This post is a discussion of visual observation parameters for the current period where Coronae Borealis is separating from solar conjunction.
With 24 hours of leeway we are nearing the close of the window for confirmation of Dr. Schneider’s hypothesis for the current system perihelion.
Requests for AAVSO and/or the larger community:
-
a discussion or layman’s summary of the Munari paper;
-
a discussion of the T CrB nova magnitude (m=5?) necessary to view the event in Bortle 5 or better;
-
the date in November or December when T CrB achieves 20°(?) of angular separation from solar conjunction at the following north latitudes:
26°, 30°, 35°, 40°, 45°, i.e. so it can be seen above the haze of the horizon in the required Bortle (5? or better?) zone;
- the date in November or December when T CrB becomes circumpolar at the following north latitudes:
66°, 60°, 55°, 50°, 45°, i.e. so it can be seen all night;
If the event occurs “soon”, based on the darkskymap:
-
if m=5 or better is required for a visual observation,
-
and if Bortle 5 or better is required for a m=5 visual observation,
-
and in consideration of the 1946 data posted by Dr. K,
the lay person who just wants to see it, even with binoculars, may have 1, maybe 2 sunrises to get to a Bortle 5 location which for the vast majority of USians is a drive of 100+ miles minimum (again per the darkskymap). If Bortle 5 is the right number, most of Europe is within 200km.
This community is the only group capable of paying forward this knowledge to our fellow citizens. There will not be time to calculate this information on the fly for dissemination to chosen ‘mainstream’ channels who take 24 hours to digest anything off-script before propagation to the proles. The data needs to be ‘ready to go’ the moment the event is detected.
If I am stating the problem incorrectly, please rephrase and rewrite the variables as appropriate.
Thank you in advance to anyone and everyone who can contribute to this endeavour.
Live long and prosper, and may the Force be with you, always.
Has to have been written by an AI. 
The Blaze is near… 
The other Blaze Starr! Yes I am that old… Blaze Starr - Wikipedia
Jim (DEY)
2 Likes
Brontoroc, wasn’t that the creature that killed President Meryl Street in “Don’t Look Up?” As T Coronae Borealis fades into the sunset, are there any satellites able to monitor the star?
1 Like